Small Fields and
the 20% Solution
by George Kaywood
|
In the mid-80's, a popular handicapping
guru advocated betting two horses per race to win, depending on the odds,
as the wagering part of the overall handicapping strategy. The profitability
of this approach has been slammed by other racing luminaries again and
again, using studies to prove that betting one horse to win is the most
profitable approach in the long run.
And they're right--for handicappers
proficient enough to maintain about a 20% winning percentage at minimally
acceptable odds to show a long-term profit.
But what about the recreational player?
These players--ones who play on weekends and maybe one other day a week-who
silently want to make a big score but who really are happy to go
home with more than they took to the races--because of their approach,
do not consistently use a structured wagering program.
It may be useful for players of all
ability levels to reconsider the two-horses-to-win betting philosophy as
we enter a new millenium in horseracing that is characterized by a troublesome
occurrence-short fields.
Let's say you're a casual player
who considers himself better than a beginner but less than an expert. Like
many other players, in short fields you can narrow the winner down to two
contenders, but find yourself zigging and zagging when it comes to nailing
the winner consistently. If you can narrow the competition in short fields
down to two regularly, is a profit of about 20% acceptable?
Try this approach--but try it on
paper first--and see if this will satisfy your desire to cash tickets and
go home a winner.
1. Play is restricted to fields of
between 6-8 horses. We want to restrict the number of possibilities to
increase the chances of your having the winner.
2. Using your preferred handicapping
style, narrow down the field to your two top contenders. Be honest with
yourself-if you can't narrow it down to only two horses, it's best
to pass.
3. The minimum odds on the lower
odds horse must not be lower than 7-5. At 7-5, a $2 bet on two horses will
return 4.80, which is a 20% profit. "Risk $4 to make eighty cents?"
I hear you asking. The logic is that if you win, you make at least a 20%
profit, and your higher-odds selections will come in often enough so that
your profit will exceed 20% and return some decent money.
Besides, for many people who invested
in the stock market or even a mutual fund they thought was a safe investment
over the last two years, twenty percent profit seems astronomical!
Let's say one of your two selections
is in fact 7-5, and the other is 3-1. The higher odds horse wins. Your
$4 investment returns 8.00 for a 100% return: $4 profit on a $4 investment.
4. If one of your horses goes off
at 6-5, no play.
Obviously, this is not a sophisticated
approach. But it is useful for the casual player, beginning handicappers
who have enough to contend with in picking logical contenders, much less
develop and utilize a wagering strategy, and for the more experienced player
in a down cycle who wants action, handicapping exercise, and a stress-free
day at the races. |