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Small Fields and the 20% Solution
by George Kaywood

In the mid-80's, a popular handicapping guru advocated betting two horses per race to win, depending on the odds, as the wagering part of the overall handicapping strategy. The profitability of this approach has been slammed by other racing luminaries again and again, using studies to prove that betting one horse to win is the most profitable approach in the long run. 

And they're right--for handicappers proficient enough to maintain about a 20% winning percentage at minimally acceptable odds to show a long-term profit. 

But what about the recreational player? These players--ones who play on weekends and maybe one other day a week-who silently want to make a big score but who really are happy to go home with more than they took to the races--because of their approach, do not consistently use a structured wagering program. 

It may be useful for players of all ability levels to reconsider the two-horses-to-win betting philosophy as we enter a new millenium in horseracing that is characterized by a troublesome occurrence-short fields.

Let's say you're a casual player who considers himself better than a beginner but less than an expert. Like many other players, in short fields you can narrow the winner down to two contenders, but find yourself zigging and zagging when it comes to nailing the winner consistently. If you can narrow the competition in short fields down to two regularly, is a profit of about 20% acceptable? 

Try this approach--but try it on paper first--and see if this will satisfy your desire to cash tickets and go home a winner. 

1. Play is restricted to fields of between 6-8 horses. We want to restrict the number of possibilities to increase the chances of your having the winner. 

2. Using your preferred handicapping style, narrow down the field to your two top contenders. Be honest with yourself-if you can't narrow it down to only two horses, it's best to pass. 

3. The minimum odds on the lower odds horse must not be lower than 7-5. At 7-5, a $2 bet on two horses will return 4.80, which is a 20% profit.  "Risk $4 to make eighty cents?" I hear you asking. The logic is that if you win, you make at least a 20% profit, and your higher-odds selections will come in often enough so that your profit will exceed 20% and return some decent money. 

Besides, for many people who invested in the stock market or even a mutual fund they thought was a safe investment over the last two years, twenty percent profit seems astronomical!

Let's say one of your two selections is in fact 7-5, and the other is 3-1. The higher odds horse wins. Your $4 investment returns 8.00 for a 100% return: $4 profit on a $4 investment. 

4. If one of your horses goes off at 6-5, no play. 

Obviously, this is not a sophisticated approach. But it is useful for the casual player, beginning handicappers who have enough to contend with in picking logical contenders, much less develop and utilize a wagering strategy, and for the more experienced player in a down cycle who wants action, handicapping exercise, and a stress-free day at the races. 

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