A Lesson from the
Lunatic School of Handicapping
by George Kaywood
|
From time to time, at small and large tracks alike, players come across
races with horses that stand out as being totally misplaced in
those races.
Examples include:
--the horse that is dropping in claiming price from, say, $25,000 to
$5,000 in one shot
--the horse that is rising in claiming price from, say, $5,000 to $25,000
in one shot
--a minor allowance horse from a truly second or third-tier track entered
in a handicap or stakes race at a major track in which it has absolutely
no chance to even sniff part of the purse
--a confirmed deep closing router in a short sprint race facing proven
sprint speed horses who don't quit
These situations, and other variations of them, inspire players to say something like "What kind of lunatic entered this horse in
this race?"
Your next thought might immediately be "Maybe he was a filler."
Up until maybe five or ten years ago, players with more
than novice handicapping knowledge could often look at races and spot "fillers."
Fillers were horses that didn't belong in the race, which
were entered more as a workout with no real intention of making a serious
try for even part of the purse. In the days when fields were full and also-eligible
lists were plentiful for what seemed like every race at every track, racing
secretaries might ask a few trainers to enter a horse that needed some
exercise just so that a particular race that didn't fill well wouldn't
have a field of "just" 5 horses.
Today, it's safe to assume there are virtually NO fillers in horse races.
As virtually all players know nowadays, fields are so short at many tracks
that there just aren't enough horses to have as many as seven horses
in each race, much less a full or nearly-full starting gate. The practice
of using a filler or two is history.
So what kind of lunatic entered this horse in this race?
We can guess at some of the answers: a lunatic owner who thinks
his investment can win anywhere, anytime; a lunatic trainer who has a horse
that has sustained some type of injury severe enough that he's hoping and
praying some sucker who doesn't know better will claim the animal; a lunatic
trainer who, being on a hot streak, thinks he has a horse that can grab
a piece of the purse against far better animals; or maybe a lunatic trainer
who thinks his horse that just can't win at one distance will magically
win at another distance for which the horse is not geared.
Or maybe...just maybe, it's not the trainer who's the lunatic.
Saturday, July 25, 2001, Del Mar, Race # 3. 6 furlongs. An Allowance
Optional Claiming race for fillies 3 & up which have not won either
$3,000 twice other than maiden or claiming or which have never won three
races or claiming price of $62,500.
Got some speedy, classy older horses (5 yrs old), and a classy router
who's always there at the 6f mark who meets today's conditions.
Wait a minute, who's this outside horse, Salty Helen?
A three-year-old who hasn't raced since May, over a year ago,
in two THREE FURLONG RACES at Turf Paradise??? Well, yeah, she won
some futurity with a purse of $118,000, but what kind of lunatic deal is
this...why is she in this race today at Del Mar?
Like most other handicappers, I dismissed the horse pretty quickly.
I was as surprised as anyone when Salty Helen went wire to wire at almost
17-1 and paid $35.80. When she hit the finish line, I started to wonder
if maybe it wasn't a lunatic deal after all....
The DRF results chart read: "Salty Helen quickly sprinted to
the lead, angled in and set the pace a bit off the rail, turned back a
rival into the stretch, got clear past midstretch, and held gamely under
some urging."
I decided to go back to the past performances to see if there was something
I missed.
Something I missed???
Granted, trainer Kory Owens has a decent 22% win record this year. But
a three-year-old from Turf Paradise with only a couple of 3-furlong races?
Well, note that Owens is the new trainer, and the horse had been previously
trainer by Molly Pearson. Note that horses making their first start after
6 months or more layoff with Owens win at a 43% clip (even with
a short sample, still impressive) and throw off an R.O.I. of $2.69. Note
that the "first-time blinkers" (which was the case, noted in the Form)
stats showed a 50% win (short sample) and $4.43 R.O.I. Note that dirt races
and sprint races (both large samples) show R.O.I.'s of $2.60 and $2.68
respectively.
I hated the feeling when I realized that --I-- was the lunatic!
I saw something odd and didn't examine every piece of information I
had available to me. I failed to remember that Del Mar is one of the country's
top race meets and that horseracing there is a cut above the rest, with
everyone racing there making serious efforts for the higher purses. And
in so doing, I didn't make what I call an "insanity insurance bet," as
I sometimes do when there's a lot of reasonable information that conflicts
with my usual handicapping logic, so that if the odd (yes, sometimes lunatic)
horse wins, I won't go nuts, saying "You jerk, a single unit bet on that
horse would not only have saved a loss, but actually made a decent profit!"
The lesson: Don't be in a hurry. Examine every piece of data you have,
even if you're comfortable with a winning approach--you're never too old
to learn new tricks when it comes to handicapping. When a horse appears
to be overwhelmingly out of place in a particular race, give him a really
hard look before you toss him.
In short, don't you become the lunatic.
Class dismissed.
|