It was with great satisfaction to be proven right on the money when I watched Monarchos finish up the track in the 2001 Preakness, as he not only validated my handicapping of that particular race, but also provided illustrative solutions for a couple of handicapping puzzles that face all  handicappers from time to time.

Not only did I put my money where my mouth was, I did it live in front of the crowd at Horsemen's Park AND in something like twelve states on the show I hosted from there on regional ESPN radio, and I gave out the exacta in the race (using winner Point Given with three horses underneath-still a juicy one despite going three deep). I point this out more to quash any charges of handicapping after the race rather than to simply brag, although anyone who says they don't also indulge in the winner's privilege of  bragging rights is lying!

The Monarchos Lesson is made up of three points.

1. Don't listen to HYPE!  After the Kentucky Derby,  the popular media--and this year, the racing media as well--kept raving all the way up through Preakness Day about the record-tying time of the race and the dominating stretch run of Monarchos. Truth is that in many races, whether Grade I or ultra-cheap, the winner is often a horse being in the right place at the right time; being at the peak of condition, having a field that sets up a pace that suits him and having a track that is to his liking on which to run.

I was not taken with the time factor as all of the previous races run at Churchill Downs on Derby Day were very fast. The track was simply a faster than average racing surface that day and you didn't need to have detailed records to be aware of that. I'm not dumping on Monarchos. He WAS the best horse in the race that day...but how much best was he?

2. If you use numbers or ratings on a regular basis because you believe in them, then BELIEVE IN THEM! All the time. Do not second-guess yourself or start thinking "Yeah. but..." because the race may be a "bigger" one than usual. 

I've become a big fan and user of Michael Pizzola's Handicapping Magic approach and here's what his pace-balanced speed numbers looked like for Monarchos going into the Preakness:

103
88
76
75
89
75
73

We knew that the 103 figure had to be inflated because of the Churchill Downs track favoring early speed so heavily.  Wouldn't it be more reasonable to conclude that within the framework of these numbers, even if Monarchos ran the best race to date in his life, that his figure would realistically be closer to 90 or in the low 90's? Or, if you buy into that 103, how likely would he be to run back to it again in the Preakness?

Based just on the numbers, I deemed the 103 to be an aberrant number and looking at the numbers in the same way just for Point Given and Congaree, decided all three horses were capable of running within the same range.

3. Your best handicapping tools apply to ALL races, the big ones and the little ones. Let's see now...my tools show a hype horse with a figure that is most likely way over-inflated; a horse whose previous monster wins came at far lower figures, who may have just run his eyeballs out two weeks ago, regardless of how "dominating" he looked;  better odds on two other prime contenders; and a race that is being run on a seemingly unbiased track, based on the previous races of the day.

Who ya gonna bet?

I'm calling it The Monarchos Lesson because these races are probably fresh in most handicapping minds as we get ready for the 2001 Belmont. The lesson is actually taught over and over again at large and small racetracks alike with all levels of horses.

Learn it, so you won't flunk the quiz the next time it's presented to you!