Rating Jockeys by George Kaywood
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I think most bettors attending the
races today are truly casual bettors and I often feel that there's not
enough simple writing about handicapping factors, which might help
to inspire some of them to pick up a handicapping book-new or old-to learn
more about the game and discover the fascination that has kept the hardcore
group going that has supported racing for years.
I was looking through some of the
older books in my collection this past week (I am constantly amazed at
how little some racing truths have changed over the last thirty years)
and found several pieces of writing on a subject you don't read much about
these days: rating jockeys.
Some handicappers consider jockeys
to be a major factor in handicapping a race; some ignore the rider altogether;
and some use jockeys more as a final narrowing-down factor, based on performance.
This simple and convenient rating
system for jockeys (from a Canadian handicapper, who will be the subject
of next week's column) is aimed at this last group of handicappers. Since
so many bettors play the races via simulcast and include tracks for which
they may not have detailed information, this rating method may help in
the final separation process among, say, two or three horses who all handicap
equally.
Total number of wins can't be used
by itself; you have to look at how many races it took the rider to notch
those wins; percentages by themselves can be very misleading-the ability
of a 20% rider who rode 2 winners in ten races is not necessarily the same
as the 20% rider who won 20 winners in 100 races, although mathematically
they're equal.
Dealing with points is always easier
than using percentages and win totals, and this simple method uses a standard
which keeps percentages in order but makes it much easier and faster to
see who's somewhat better than the other on your selections.
Quick, which one is the best jockey?
Rider |
Starts |
Wins |
A |
194 |
39 |
B |
127 |
31 |
C |
192 |
32 |
A lot of people have trouble making
the right call on this one, especially if they are doing, as many players
do, last-minute handicapping at the simulcast outlet or even at the track.
Try this:
Divide the number of starts by
the number of wins, and round off to the nearest half-point. Subtract
that number from 10. In cases where the figure is greater than 10, the
rating is zero.
In the example here, A receives a
rating of 5, B gets a 6, and C is a 4. By percentages: A 20%, B 24%, C
17%
While you might select B as the first
choice right away if you're good with figures, the difference between A
and C certainly seems less with point ratings than with percentages, and
viewed as a one-point difference rather than a 7 vs 4 percent difference
is simply easier to handle for many handicappers.
If you're a real racing fan,
you probably have at least one bookshelf in your home filled with racing
and handicapping books, some of which are over ten, maybe twenty years
old. You bought each one in the hope that it contained some bit of handicapping
information that would help you find your way to the windows more often
with more winning tickets.
When was the last time you took one
down and read it or just thumbed through it? If it's been awhile,
I suggest you get into the habit of doing so somewhat regularly to review
points you may have forgotten or, if it's something that just doesn't hold
any meaning any more for you, to inspire you to put the book up for auction
on e-Bay to try to get a few bucks to add to your betting bankroll. Either
way, it'll be a good investment of your time. |