A Racing Reality Check - Part 1
by George Kaywood
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I got married October 6.
Nancy is THE love of my life, the woman I've always wanted, and that
includes the fact that she is a racing fan and handicapper who ENCOURAGES
trips to the track or OTB!
We took a two-week honeymoon that included stops in London and Poland.
Some called this choice odd, and that's understandable; we went to learn
more about my family history and to give Nancy a visit to a part of the
world she'd never been to before.
If you've traveled internationally before, some of this may seem "old
hat" to you. Hang in there--it gets much better!
On the trip we experienced many reality checks, the impact of which
was to remind and reinforce how lucky we are to live in the United States.
Not having access to simple things we take for granted here (such as being
served water in a restaurant without it being a drink you pay for, or struggling
to make yourself understood in a place where the majority of locals don't
understand what you're saying-and vice versa) is a true in-your-face wake-up
call.
The first racing reality check we got took place in London, where
we picked up a copy of the Daily Mail newspaper. First of
all, there actually was a section devoted to racing. If you
live in or near a major American city which has a major track, your response
may be "So what?" But for those of us who rely on simulcast centers, phone
wagering, and the Internet, having good information in your daily paper
is a wonderful handicapping aid, which, for many of us, used to
be there, but went away when the local track closed its doors. The DRF
offers some of the same information, but the Daily Mail presented
it in a way that really shines.
Looking at the Daily Mail' s Breeders' Cup Edition of October
27, there's some of what you would expect, with a writeup on the BC, and
a spotlight on the BC Classic, but what caught my eye were two things devoted
to mostly local racing for the day.
The first was an alphabetical listing of all horses running at the FIVE
UK tracks running that day with the times of the race each horse
was in, rather than the race number, which seems to be the preferred method
here in the U.S. While having both would be ideal, being able to track
horses this way at 5 tracks in a space less than three inches high and
across the bottom of the page seemed to be a great common-sense idea.
The next thing--and the better of the two--was a color and graphic-coded
section titled Ahead of the Game. Here's what was included
in it:
Price Check: The best bet of the day from a price point of view
as determined by the Mail's handicapper. Of all the races at all
the tracks, what would be the best morning line odds bet of the day? The
day's selection was 3-1 on Aptitude in the BC.
Hot Money: A listing of the top horses which British bookmakers
have lowered the odds on the most since their last race.
Sinker: The horse most likely to run a bad race today. In this
case it was another BC entry, Lailani, which was unbeaten in seven races,
"...however, she could struggle from her draw." (Which I would assume means
post position.)
Burnt Fingers: Horse beaten last time out that was bet down but
didn't run as well as expected. The horse spotted went off at 9-2 after
being bet down from an opening of 8-1.
Work Whisper: The exact words say it best: "MERDIFF is expected
to put up a bold show on his belated debut this afternoon after some encouranging
spins at Newmarket recently."
Who's Hot: Numbers and winning percentages of trainers and jockeys
in the past 14 days.
Who's Not: One of my personal favorites when it comes to
statistics. Cold trainers, listed by runners since last win--trainers
names plus the figures of death: Kelly 167, K McAuliffe 102, etc. Then,
cold jockeys, listed by rides since last win--J Bramhill 113, R
Hobson 96, and so on.
Trainer Form: An interesting guide showing the winning records
of trainers in the same type of race in which they have horses running
today, dating as far back as 1987. This would come as bad news to the
small band of American handicappers who track trainers who seem to win
the same race year in and year out, especially if they're a small stable
running at the same meet regularly.
Dave "Spotplay" Maycock, and Mark Cramer have discussed this (indpendently
of one another) in various articles in years past. This bit of information
is different enough from the typical meet-to-date stats and generalized
trainer stats to be very valuable for fans of trainer moves, or perhaps
more correctly described as trainer habits.
On the Move: "Horses having their first runs for new trainers."
It's a lot easier to see this info presented in paragraph form than the
way most players keep tabs. And a lot cheaper when it's in the local paper
rather than the DRF.
Class Conscious: "Horses dropped in grade from their previous
outing."
Drop a Hint: A listing of horses dropping weight today; "horses
which have dropped most from winning marks."
Travelwise: (I think...)A listing by distance in miles of how
far shippers have traveled to be in the race they're in today.
I've heard a number of Brits who tease us by saying that Britons and
Americans are a common people separated by language. It was refreshing
to see the "separation by language" that exists in the types and presentations
of the various types of handicapping factors. And a good reality check
to remind us that across the world, as well as across the same country,
there's always a different way for handicappers to look at--and--use the
same information.
Next week: an unexpected adventure at one of the best-looking turf tracks
in the world. Here's what it looks like. Anybody know where it is?
More pictures and another, larger, reality check next week!
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