A Look at Touts
by George Kaywood
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"TOUT:" a: chiefly British : to
spy on racehorses in training to gain information for betting. b : to give
a tip or solicit bets on a racehorse.
What about 'em?
I recently read a letter from a player
who complained that the selections he had received from a public handicapper--and
they were FREE selections, no less--(1) were all low-priced favorites and
(2) ran out of the money. He went on to say that he handicapped a high-odds
horse in one race himself, but didn't play it because he was "influenced
by the pro" whose picks he received and then watched as his longshot scored
at 20-1. He concluded: "boy, am I disappointed...his handicapping was pathetic."
It's almost hard to believe that
Political Correctness has filtered down into the rank and file of horse
race handicappers. Blame the other guy. Blame the horse. Blame the trainer.
Blame the track. But don't blame yourself!
Touts, paid selections, picks, handicapping
services, whatever you prefer to call them, have been around racing a long
time.
Why do people buy
picks rather than handicap the races for themsleves?
1) Unfamiliarity with handicapping.
The
obvious still has to be spelled out: many people attend live racing
and simulcasts who don't have any idea how to handicap, why one race is
different from another, or that sprints are actually different than routes.
Many of these ultra-casual fans choose not to bet on numbers or the colors
of the jockeys' silks, but would still like to have something to use that
can steer them off a certain loser and at least increase their chances
a little for taking a stab on a better possibility. So they buy the "blue
sheet," or some other tip sheet in the hope of cashing a ticket or two,
and at least get a little run for their betting money.
2) Lack of experience or skill.
A beginning player or a handicapper with limited experience may be overwhelmed
with information and unable to decide which factors should take precedence
over others. Such a player may buy a sheet or publication that uses a little
more of the jargon specific to racing, with more detailed explanations
of how and why a selection was made. Over time, using a well-written sheet,
this can be an education in itself, helping developing handicappers to
recognize the hiearchies of handicapping factors, as well as certain spot
plays that may suit their style, or show situations to avoid.
3) Lack of information. Even
the most experienced handicapper has weaknesses. Some players know they
don't do well with certain types of races, such as maidens, turf races,
starter allowances, and marathons. Without fairly detailed records, certain
types of racing situations present impossible handicapping situations:
horses going long or short for the first time; first start on grass (or
dirt); 2-year-old racing, and so on.
Buying the picks of someone like
Lauren Stich, with her selections for Trackmaster based on in-depth knowledge
of bloodlines and breeding, is an excellent way to supplement and strengthen
your handicapping in an area that baffles many handicappers. Is it also
an admission of weakness? Yeah. So what?
4) Lack of time. A problem
that is common to both newcomers and veteran players alike. No further
explanation needed.
What do people expect
from touts?
1) The winning horse in every
race. This really sounds stupid when you read it in print,doesn't
it? And yet, this is the hope, the dream of everyone who buys paid picks.Wouldn't
it be nice if all you had to do was to bet the top selection and just cash
ticket after ticket? Get real! Ain't gonna happen. The sad
part is that when that top horse doesn't come in, the buyer will usually
curse the selector without looking to see:
-
in how many races the top pick hit the
board
-
the number of exotic bet wins using
the top two or three selections (maybe even four) in each race
-
if the winning horse was among the top
half (or better) of the picks of each race
Little things that even an uniformed
player can use to start making smarter selections on his own.
2) Every day to be a winning one.
Again, another unrealistic expectation. Anyone who reads
the classic books of handicapping, whether by Ainslie, Beyer, Davidowitz,
Quirin, or other easily recognizable names in the game, should come away
with the understanding that in horserace handicapping and wagering,
as in any other form of gambling or sporting event, nobody wins every day.
Form cycles of horses, players, and
athletes peak and decline in irregular and different patterns. Fatigue
and injuries require different times for recovery for each person or animal.
Winning and losing goes in cyles; we all have good days and bad days and
some seem to cluster without reason. Sound obvious? It should be, but for
the type of person who can rightfully be called a sore loser, it's
not!
When Ak-Sar-Ben was alive and well
here in Omaha, I was in a public handicapper's challenge with two other
good local handicappers, including Terry Wallace, the English-teacher-turned-race
caller currently at Oaklawn, and one of the most knowledgable players I
know. I handicapped for about 36 hours straight, and wound up picking 9
out of 12 winners on top on Ak-Sar-Ben Handicap Day, and 24 of 36 horses
in the money. I won the contest; then I went home and slept for almost
two days straight. After the dust and the glory had settled, the next few
days, I couldn't pick a winner if he was one of two horses in a race and
his opponent only had three legs. Burnout happens.
The intelligent way to decide if
you should use a paid selector to supplement your own handicapping basically
has 3 steps:
1. Acknowledge that you are
going to lay out a specified amount of money for a period of time.
One or two days will simply not cut it. Two weeks is the minimum; a month
would be better. It's an investment in something that only you can
research.
2. Make up your own list of
performance standards. This is crucial. Do you want to track top-horse-win
stats only? How about a list using the bulleted list above? Any other type
of performance? Without such a list, you're wasting your time.
3. Keep track of the results
for your performance standards by type of race. Just as you have
your strengths and weaknesses, so do other players. The selector you're
"handicapping," even one with years of experience and know-how, might be
a killer with allowance races and miserable with maidens.
Some public handicappers are just
hacks throwing together a list of selections to make a fast buck. The so-called
pros, writers and racing personalities with name recognition and years
of experience, usually work honestly and hard, utilizing their racing experience
and solid handicapping concepts, to arrive at their selections.
They try to do their best, in spite
of the fact that a daily deadline for full-card handicapping can be a grinding,
tiring effort. On days when they pick a lot of winners, they are heroes.
On days when they're just off the mark or racing luck ruins their work,
they're bums; and yet the same amount of analysis and work went into both
efforts.
Racing is peopled by many who don't
like to admit or to be told they're mainly chasing dreams. Others who share
a passion for thoroughbreds understand that it takes experience, skill,
luck, work, and sometimes a little help to put it all together, and that
it sometimes just doesn't go down the way you really think it should.
Which are you? |