The Worst is the
Best
by George Kaywood
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OK,
gang, it’s quiz time again.
All
I want you to do is to read the question, STOP, do not let your eyes go
forward to the next paragraph, and think about the answer to today’s quiz
question before you read on.
Ready?
Question: what
is the single worst
task associated with handicapping?
If
it took you a minute or two to really think about it, don’t sweat it. Most
people do not get the answer right. And there really is
only one right answer,
although some will argue that it’s a subjective question. I’m sure all
handicappers I consider to be pros will agree.
The
answer is: keeping
track of your bets, your profits/loss.
In
EVERY handicapping seminar of which I’ve been a part, whether as lecturer
or participant, when the question of keeping personal betting records is
asked, the number of people who answer that they do keep records can be
counted on the fingers of one hand.
Why
do so few people keep personal records? Because most people consider it
the worst task associated with handicapping. From an immediate viewpoint,
it seems to be non-productive. It’s not a fun thing to do on any given
losing day and certainly not during a bad streak of handicapping fatigue
or just plain bad racing luck. It’s both depressing and leads to your questioning
what might be a long-term winning approach.
What’s
it been now….30, maybe, 40 years, that we’ve been conditioned to lust for
instant gratification in every part of our lives? For many players, number
of winners picked during a trip to the races is more important
than how much they won—or lost!
Try
asking your racing buds what their ROI (or even winning percentage) is,
and 9 1/2 out of 10 will give you an “estimate” or an “Oh, I’m doing all
right.”
It
takes more guts and smarts to start and stick
to a recordkeeping plan than it appears. It is not a simple or easy commitment
for most to make. There’s no standard or uniform way; whatever way works
for you is the best way, as long as you keep tabs on EVERY bet and the
return.
One
of the main reasons well-meaning players quit keeping records after they
start is truly traumatic---the process forces you to start thinking about
the nature
of your bets. All of a sudden, you start thinking “Is this a serious
bet or an action bet?”
The mind starts fighting itself: “Hey, dummy, if it’s not a serious
bet, why are you making it?”
And:
“Is this a bet structured to make money, or am I building a wager that
will break even if my handicapping doesn’t go down the way I planned?”
These
may read like simple issues, but facing them in action with the many pressures
you face during a trip to the track or the OTB will often blow them up
to be stressful, demanding situations.
If
you’ve never considered it this way before, you’re probably starting to
see why keeping your own records can be the worst
part of handicapping.
And
yet they’re the best!
The
best, because
they are your best strength. Over time, they will show you
where you are weakest and where you are strongest. They will help you to
understand which aspects of handicapping you grasp well and which are in
need of work or re-thinking.
Best
of all, your own records will reveal exactly where you are making money
and where you are losing money. You may be amazed to find that your strongest
area is in exactas rather than straight win bets, which indicates that
you should be putting more money into the exotics than into straight bets.
Sounds obvious, but until it’s down in black and white, you can’t really
be sure.
What
do I do? I take an 8 ½ x 11 inch yellow pad and write down each
bet (most of my action is done at the local simulcast facility, so many
people bring in notes, notebooks, pads, etc. I like to come equipped with
extra pages of paper for notes rather than copy them in the edges of the Form
or whatever printout I may bring with me).
I
dispense with headings and standard form-type layouts, after having learned
that it’s just plain easier to write it down in chunks, with a line separating
each chunk on the page.
One
of my chunks looks something like this:
# 210
6/18/01 LRL
Race 1 $10K CL NW2 this year 6 f 4+
$20W - 1 horse
Results of this bet
$2 EX PW 3 on top/1
Results of this bet
What:
+/- for this bet
Cumulative $ for day |
Note that I spell out the type of wager, rather than use a horse number.
When I look at this later, I'll know what types of bets I do well with
very clearly. The information labeled "What" is where I'll write one or
two lines that will say something like "pace projection on target-main
contender won," or "2nd & 3rd choices ran 1-2; both had merit, top
contender ran 3rd, no prob."
If I find that my top contender is not winning, I may want to try betting
two horses to win if the odds are right, or maybe go with a show parlay
for awhile and study why I am missing the mark--what in my handicapping
is off.
The "# 210" is a cumulative bet counter. I'll put all my bets by type
into a notebook (usually by hand, believe it or not) when I get home, classified
by type of race and distance and just use the number and W or L for win
or lose. If one of the categories, say Allowances, shows a losing trend,
I can just look at my original handwritten notes for those races by looking
up entry # 210, 218, 234, etc. and see if there's a pattern or common element
to pinpoint a problem.
It's not rocket science, but it does take determination and a little
work. But the results can pay off Big Time.
That's why the worst really is the best.
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